Historical Volatility (HV)
What is historical volatility?
Historical volatility is a crucial concept for investors to understand when analyzing the risk and return potential of an investment. It is a measure of the amount and frequency of price fluctuations of an asset over a given period in the past. The historical volatility of an asset can significantly affect the value of an investment.
How does historical volatility work?
To understand historical volatility, let's consider a scenario. Suppose an investor is considering two different stocks, A and B, with different historical volatility numbers. Stock A has a historical volatility of 15%, while Stock B has a higher historical volatility of 25%.
The historical volatility of 15% for Stock A indicates that the stock's daily price movements have been, on average, 15% per year. On the other hand, the historical volatility of 25% for Stock B indicates that the stock's daily price movements have been, on average, 25% per year, which is higher than Stock A.
Assuming both stocks have the same average annual return of 10%, the expected range of returns for each stock can be calculated using their historical volatility numbers. For Stock A, the expected range of returns would be between -5% and +25% (10% minus 15% and 10% plus 15%). For Stock B, the expected range of returns would be between -15% and +35% (10% minus 25% and 10% plus 25%).
From this scenario, it is clear that historical volatility plays a significant role in determining the risk and return potential of an investment. A higher historical volatility implies a higher risk but also a higher return potential. On the other hand, a lower historical volatility implies a lower risk but also a lower return potential.
Limitation of historical volatility
Investors should be aware of the limitations of historical volatility. Historical volatility is based on past data, and it may not reflect the current market conditions. Another limitation of historical volatility is that it does not capture all types of risk. For example, it does not account for the potential for unexpected events such as natural disasters, geopolitical events, or pandemics that can cause market shocks. Investors should update their analysis regularly to ensure that they are using the most relevant data. Meanwhile, investors should also consider other types of risk, such as credit risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk, when making investment decisions.
Use historical volatility to manage portfolio risk
Investors can use historical volatility to determine the appropriate level of risk for their investment portfolio. By comparing the historical volatility of different assets, investors can identify which assets are riskier and which are less risky. A well-diversified portfolio should include a mix of assets with varying levels of historical volatility to balance risk and return potential.
Additionally, investors can also use historical volatility to manage their portfolio risk. For example, they can use options or futures contracts to hedge against potential losses caused by a sudden increase in volatility. Alternatively, they can adjust their portfolio allocation based on changes in historical volatility.
Finally, investors should be aware of the impact of volatility on their emotions. Volatility can cause investors to make irrational decisions, such as selling at the bottom of a market downturn or buying at the peak of a market rally. To avoid emotional decision-making, investors should have a clear investment strategy that is based on their investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.